I asked the Treasury Department how they got immigration forecasts for the year so horribly wrong when they were already a third of the way through the year? In October 2022, the Government estimated total net overseas migration for the year July 2022 to June 2023 to be 235,000. The actual arrivals for 2022-23 ended up at 518,000. It’s hard to understand how Treasury was this wrong about those 12 months when they were already 4 months through them.
This is just more proof the government’s immigration program is totally out of control. Minister Gallagher is wrong when she claims this flood immigration is a benefit to Australia. Right now immigration is choking our country, making the housing problem, the cost of living crisis, energy shortages, the crisis in healthcare and other essential services even worse.
Only One Nation will make sure Australians get a roof over their heads first.
Transcript
Senator ROBERTS: Thank you to the officials for being here today. The 2022-23 budget, delivered in October 2022, predicted that net overseas migration would be 235,000 people for the financial year 2022-23. Can I ask whether the Treasury’s definition of net overseas migration differs from the Australian Bureau of Statistics’ definition of overseas migration?
Ms Reinhardt: Sorry; can you just—
Senator ROBERTS: Do you have the same definition of net—
Ms Reinhardt: Yes, we do.
Senator ROBERTS: I want to go to your department’s immigration forecasts. I notice that in the October 2022 budget papers, four months into that financial year, you were predicting net overseas migration at 235,000 people for the year. Instead, the Australian Bureau of Statistics says Australia had 737,000 migrant arrivals, for a net overseas migration of 518,000—well over double what you said.
Ms Reinhardt: In the budget, we had a figure for net overseas migration of 400,000. The MYEFO had 510,000, and I recognise that that is a significant miss. I would, however, flag a couple of things around that. The first is that the UK in the period between March and November last year had to double their NOM forecast, and New Zealand had a similar adjustment. There has been a significant uptick in student arrivals post-COVID in most countries—Canada, Australia, UK and New Zealand. There was, I guess, a catch-up that was much faster than any of those countries predicted. We are still below where we would otherwise have been had COVID not occurred. But I think you’re right in saying those forecasts could have been better, if that’s the point you’re making. I would say we are in company. I don’t say it’s good company, but we are in company, and that is something we do need to look at. The other point I’d make is that there have been some really significant changes that have been introduced in the last six months. They’re around closing off the pandemic event visa; introducing really significant integrity changes around student visas; looking at ways of targeting better temporary skilled migration; and indexing theTSMIT, the temporary skilled migration income threshold. We would expect those changes to have quite a substantial impact on arrivals and the NOM numbers.
Senator ROBERTS: Thank you. I’ll stay with you, Ms Reinhardt. I think you talked about catching up on the pre-COVID-era statistics. My understanding is that we had 1.9 million people on visas before the COVID, and by October 2023 we had 2.3 million—we’d already caught up, well and truly, at the start of that year. I can’t tell you which group of visas—
Ms Reinhardt: We haven’t fully caught up, but, in terms of visa numbers, I’ll see if my colleague—
Senator ROBERTS: No, we’ve more than caught up in categories of working visas.
Ms Horvat: No.
Ms Reinhardt: No, not in terms of the stock of—
Senator ROBERTS: In working visas?
Ms Horvat: We look at net overseas migration in total—
Senator ROBERTS: I’ve shifted to working visas.
Ms Horvat: but Ms Reinhardt’s statement is correct, as we have not caught up to pre-COVID for total net overseas migration.
Senator Gallagher: But Treasury don’t look at what particular visa type you’re on; that would be a matter for Home Affairs.
Senator ROBERTS: Thank you for pointing that out. Nonetheless, this huge increase in people has a huge impact on the people who are already here. What happens to the prices of houses, rentals, accommodation generally, energy, groceries—cost of living? There’s a huge impact on all of those things when we have so many people flooding into the country.
Ms Reinhardt: I’m really not best placed to answer the broader inflation questions, but I would say that net overseas migration has really significant positive impacts for Australia. That’s been shown in the analysis year after year. We have maintained a very low unemployment rate in Australia whilst having pretty long-term migration to Australia for several hundred years, and that’s been a really important factor to our economic success. It has also, in recent times, not resulted in any substantial uptick in unemployment, and at the same time we’ve seen really high participation rates for Australians. So I would push back on the idea that that is an absolute negative for Australians, as it’s delivered substantial economic benefit to Australians.
Senator ROBERTS: It would be, potentially, if it were done in a carefully calculated way and with infrastructure spending to match, but we haven’t build a dam in how many decades for water supply?
Senator Gallagher: We’re moving into a different area.
Senator ROBERTS: That’s right. I’m directing my question to you, Minister. This has a huge impact on people’s livelihoods.
Senator Gallagher: The evidence that you’ve been given is that migration to this country has supported economic growth across the country for many years. We agree that we needed to tighten up some of the arrangements that we’re seeing, particularly around international students and some of the loopholes that were being used—some of the behavioural responses post COVID—and that work is being done. Because of those reforms, there will be 180,000 fewer people over the forward estimates than there would’ve been if we had left the situation unattended to, but there’s a huge amount of work.
Senator ROBERTS: That’s still a large number.
Senator Gallagher: It comes down to, I think, 250,000 in the final year of the forward estimates. The work that the Minister for Home Affairs is doing in the migration space has been complex. She inherited a lot of issues in that department—that’s probably putting it politely—and we’re working through them bit by bit. But those reforms are in place. The issues that you raise around infrastructure are real. I don’t think you can blame all of those, again, on overseas migration to this country. Infrastructure requires long-term planning. It involves investments from states and territories. Some of the pressures we’re seeing in housing supply haven’t happened overnight or in the last two years. It’s been a build-up over a much longer period of time, when we weren’t experiencing those high levels of overseas migration that we’ve seen in the last two years. It’s more complex than that. But, yes, we have to work on housing supply; we have to ensure that we’re building infrastructure that’s right for people in cities, towns and regions across Australia; we’ve got to fix the migration system; and we’ve got to make sure that it works for everybody.
Senator ROBERTS: That’s my point, Minister: just adding more people without doing all the other creates a problem. Sure, it increases economic growth, which looks good in a book or on a whiteboard—
Senator Gallagher: It supports jobs and incomes in this country, so it is interlinked. What I’m saying is, we will always want to have a migration program. We want to attract people to this country. We want them to live here and come from any country around the world. There are good social and economic reasons to have an approach like that, but, at the same time, you have to be looking after your back garden as well. You have to be making sure the infrastructure is there and that you’re building the housing, and we’re doing all of those things.
Senator ROBERTS: Thank you, Chair.
