I investigated where Meat and Livestock Australia is taking the $28bn red meat industry.  It is clear that the industry plan titled “Red Meat 2030” does not tell the full story. Red Meat 2030  is a strategic plan to double the value of the red meat industry without increasing herd numbers or prices, whilst bringing the industry to net zero emissions. This sounds like a fairy-tale and yet the Liberal/Nationals Government is selling this plan to farmers with a straight face.

In answer to my questions on Tuesday Jason Strong, Managing Director of Meat and Livestock Australia made the stunning admission the Red Meat 2030 plan is not a plan but an “ambitious goal” – bureaucrat speak for a political goal not a planning goal. MLA do not have a plan for how to deliver the 100% increase in the value of the red meat market.

Improvements to feed composition, genetics, transport and finishing have led to a 13% increase in weight. Where is the other 87% increase coming from if herd numbers are not increased?

Tuesday’s answers give us a hint of what is really planned. To explain, at the moment marginal farming land produces meat that sells in the cheaper end of the market, mostly through major supermarkets. This allows everyday Australians to buy red meat as a routine part of their diet. Once MLA complete this plan, there will be no more of this reasonably-priced meat. The only red meat produced in Australia will be a premium product to go on the tables of the very wealthy, with most production being exported to wealthy citizens of other countries. That is where the 87% price increase comes from.

Red Meat 2030 is a plan to take red meat off the table of everyday Australians. This is implementing the political goals of the United Nations to reduce red meat consumption to 14g – one mouthful – a day.  I spoke about this UN plan in my speech to the Senate recently. A vote for the Liberal, Nationals, Labor or Greens is a vote for taking red meat off the table of everyday Australians through their Red Meat 2030 plan.

Transcript

Senator ROBERTS: Thank you, Chair, and thank you for attending. May I start by complimenting Meat & Livestock Australia on their Australia Day TV advertisement. I loved it.

This is my first question. Mr Strong, in your letter to me, dated 27 October 2021, you acknowledged that the data I quoted at the last Senate estimates from a report published on the CSIRO website titled ‘Australian cattle herd: a new perspective on structure, performance and production’, dated 2021, was correctly quoted. I thank you for that and accept that Meat & Livestock Australia consider the figure I used is higher than what you would use. The lead author of that report, Dr Geoffry Fordyce, works for Meat & Livestock Australia on your NB2 herd pillar feed base program. Is that correct?

Mr Strong : He certainly has. I’m not sure if he’s currently contracted, but certainly he has worked with us, yes.

Senator ROBERTS: So my decision to use the data that I used was logical, then, wasn’t it?

Mr Strong : Partially, yes.

Senator ROBERTS: Thank you. I want to turn to the Meat & Livestock Australia Strategic Plan 2025. You’re familiar with that. On page 4—these are your own words, Mr Strong—it says:

With a new whole‑of‑industry strategic plan in place, Red Meat 2030—

that’s the name of your plan—

there is an opportunity for MLA to drive transformational change. We have to find ways to support the industry to deliver on its ambitious vision of doubling the value of red meat sales.

Could you please specify what percentage of this 100 per cent increase in sales revenue will come from price rises and what percentage will come from sales volume increases.

Mr Strong : The Red Meat 2030 plan is actually the industry plan that was put together by RMAC. It’s a 10-year plan that the industry collectively put together. Our five-year plan then fits in behind that. We’ve adopted the same overarching goal and the six pillars—

Senator ROBERTS: That’s your MLA—

Mr Strong : That’s our five-year plan. It draws on the Red Meat 2030 plan, which is the broader industry plan. It doesn’t specify what component of that growth comes from price or volume. Speaking from opinion, having been involved in that process, the setting of that target was being ambitious for the future of the industry in creating and capturing value but also making sure that we weren’t, as an industry, limited to price or volume. The industry, collectively, has over the last 30 years invested in a significant range of activities—not just with Meat & Livestock Australia and our R&D and marketing but with a range of other activities as well—for us to produce a higher quality, more consistent, traceable and guaranteed product but also to take advantage of or participate in the preferential market access that we have available to us. So there are opportunities for us to increase productivity, but there are also opportunities for us to create and capture more value in higher quality products where we have preferential access to high-quality markets. So it’s a combination of both.

Senator ROBERTS: Pardon me, but it sounds like waffle. Who are you trying to convince here? The farmers, the producers, need to have some kind of faith in what you’re leading and yet you’re telling me now that it’s just an ambitious plan with no limit on price or volume. Surely this has all been modelled.

Mr Strong : There are a number of things sitting behind it, but I think it’s quite the opposite to waffle. It’s providing opportunity in multiple areas rather than restricting it to one.

Senator ROBERTS: Hang on. Opportunity comes from knowing something about it. What you’re saying here is: ‘We haven’t done this. It’s an opportunity because it hasn’t been modelled.’

Mr Strong : The opportunity comes from the investments that the broader industry has made over the last 20 or 30 years in having a consistent, quality, traceable product—with a quality assurance program behind it—that is being sold at higher prices into markets where we now have preferential access.

Senator ROBERTS: I accept that, but you’re still talking very generally. To double the value of red meat sales you need to double the price if the herd stays flat.

Mr Strong : If the volume stays the same. The volume can increase if the herd stays the same size. You can have increased carcase weight or increased productivity.

Senator ROBERTS: Yes, 13 per cent is your increased carcase weight. There doesn’t seem to be any real meat in this.

Mr Strong : There’s an outcomes report that actually lays out some of the progress that has already been made. Look at something like Meat Standards Australia, which is the eating quality program. Last year it added $158 million in value to farmgate revenue for producers and over the last 10 years it has created more than $1 billion in value at the farmgate. We can share with you the extension adoption report, which does list some very specific areas, like Meat Standards Australia, like the Profitable Grazing Systems program and the Producer Demonstration Sites program, which have quantified increases in farmgate value and also increases on a per hectare basis of benefit to producers of adopting the things that the industry has invested in.

Senator ROBERTS: Okay, I’ll accept that, if you’d like to send us that. The fundamental figure though is 100 per cent increase in value with flat herd size.

Mr Strong : No, it’s not, Senator. There’s nothing about a flat herd size. It is doubling the value of red meat sales over a 10-year period.

Senator ROBERTS: In the last Senate estimates we had a difference of opinion on the direction of herd numbers, and we’ve still got that.

Mr Strong : Yes.

Senator ROBERTS: I maintained that the only way to meet net zero carbon dioxide targets—and why you’d want to meet that is beyond me, because no-one has given me any proof—under Meat & Livestock Australia’s CN30 program, the Carbon Neutral by 2030 program, is to hold herd numbers at the historically low numbers experienced during the recent drought. In reply you said:

We are very aware that there have been discussions that things like the carbon neutral goal are reliant on limiting livestock numbers or reducing production or profitability, and we completely reject those.

I thank you for your answer on notice regarding herd numbers and I now reference a document you sent me—a Meat & Livestock Australia publication titled ‘Industry projections 2021: Australian cattle—July update’. On page 4 there are herd numbers. Herd size, slaughter and production are all flat—and, arguably, slightly decreasing in the last few years—across the period indicated, from 2000 to 2023, and down from their peak in this period. Am I reading that right?

Mr Strong : You may be, Senator, but I don’t have that one in front of me. What I can do is provide you with the updated projections from earlier this year, which show the projected increase in production and outputs, so increases in herd size and increases in productivity. We can provide that to you.

Senator ROBERTS: Yes, if you could, please.

Mr Strong : We can certainly do that.

Senator ROBERTS: Coming back to what you raised earlier on, in the bottom graph carcase weights are showing an increase of 13 per cent. This does in part reflect the work done by Meat & Livestock Australia on genetics, feedbase and transport. Is that correct?

Mr Strong : In part, yes.

Senator ROBERTS: Only in part? There are other factors involved?

Mr Strong : Yes—like producers’ willingness to adopt new technologies. But I think part of the increase in carcass weight comes from the increase in turn-off through the feedlot sector. An increased number of animals have come through the feedlot sector as a finishing mechanism in the last year or two. That also contributes to an increase in carcass weight.

Senator ROBERTS: Either way, it’s a good job because 13 per cent is a significant increase in productivity and profitability.

Mr Strong : Correct.

Senator ROBERTS: Page 2 of this report says the average herd number for cattle from 2016 to 2021, which included a substantial drought influence, was 26,619. The best year was 2018, at 28,052. Meat & Livestock Australia’s projections are 27,223 for 2022 and 28,039 for 2023. This is down from the CSIRO’s figure of 30 million to 40 million before the drought, which was the point I was making in the last Senate estimates.

Even if the CSIRO figure is higher than you would accept, I fail to see an increase here in these figures. And I’m still trying to see where the increase in the herd numbers component of the 100 per cent increase in red meat production is coming from. Is it true that, unless the herd numbers recover to around 30 million, Meat & Livestock Australia are projecting a permanent reduction in the Australian herd?

Mr Strong : No, it’s not. The paper you’re referencing is not a CSIRO paper. Dr Fordyce is the lead author and he’s previously worked with CSIRO. It was present on their publication site but it’s not a formal CSIRO paper. But that’s an aside.

Senator ROBERTS: But he did work for you?

Mr St rong : Absolutely. And he still does work in a range of different areas. He’s been a very prominent researcher with the Queensland Department of Primary Industries in northern Australia and has done quite a bit of work with MLA and our predecessors over the years.

Senator ROBERTS: So he’s pretty competent?

Mr Strong : That doesn’t mean we have to agree on everything, though, does it? We could also quote other papers—

Senator ROBERTS: No. But, if he’s competent, there’s got to be a reason for not agreeing.

Mr Strong : Certainly. But other papers that have been produced by independent analysts say the herd’s even smaller than what we project.

Senator ROBERTS: Even smaller?

Mr Strong : Yes. Those papers are by private commercial analysts. They are widely read and get quoted to us as much or more than this paper does. But the herd size isn’t the only driver of productivity. As you said, it’s about being able to increase carcass weights, increase value and increase productivity. One of the things that Dr Fordyce has been involved with is the NB2 program that you mentioned. The ability to increase cows in calf, decrease cow mortality, increase calves that survive and increase weaning weight in reasonably modest levels—a decrease in cow mortality by a couple of per cent, an increase in fertility by a couple of per cent and a 10-kilo increase in weaning weight—has a material impact on northern productivity not just in numbers but also in value. The herd size is an important number to help us with our planning and projections when we look at a range of things; but it’s only one of the contributors to productivity, profitability and how we get to a doubling of value for the red meat sector.

Senator ROBERTS: Looking at agricultural producers, whether it be livestock or crops, there’s certainly a huge increase and improvement in the use of science to guide it. That’s become a wonderful productivity improvement tool. But it still comes back to basic arithmetic. If herd numbers are not growing, after allowing for improved carcass weights, the only way to increase the value of red meat production by 100 per cent, after allowing for the 13 per cent carcass weight increase, is for price increases of 87 per cent.

Mr Str ong : No, it’s not. Chairman Beckett mentioned our trip to Darwin two weeks ago. One of the great things we heard about there was the use of knowledge that’s been gained over the last 10 or 20 years by the industry. There were a couple of fantastic examples of the use of phosphorus as a supplement in phosphorus-deficient country. For the same cow herd size, there was a halving in cow mortality and a 30 per cent increase in weaning rates. Herd size is not the only way to increase productivity. When you think about ways to make significant improvements in productivity, it actually becomes a minor factor. Being able to produce more from what we have, regardless of what we have, and creating and capturing more value from that is much more important than the herd size.

Senator ROBERTS: I accept that it’s a laudable goal to increase the productivity, capturing more from what you have.

Mr Strong : Yes.

Senator ROBERTS: So, if herd sizes stay flat, are you able to provide me with the breakdown of where the 100 per cent increase in red meat value will come from?

Mr Strong : We can provide you with some.

CHAIR: Senator Roberts, I’ve got questions on this. Perhaps, if you stick around, we can talk about it.

Senator ROBERTS: Good. I’ve only got two more questions. Can you provide that breakdown?

Mr Strong : We can provide some. As I say, that’s an industry broader 10-year goal. In our five-year plan we’ve laid out a range of areas that we’re investing in, so we can certainly provide you with a range of activities that are currently underway. And, like I mentioned before, the outcomes report will give you some evidence of where that progress has already been shown.

Senator ROBERTS: Just to summarise, I’m concerned—and hopefully your figures will alleviate that concern—that what you’re relying upon is a huge increase in price, which will hurt the consumer. The second thing I’m concerned about is why this is being done. Let’s listen to the chair’s questions and let’s get the figures from you.

My last two questions: I acknowledge from your letter that there’s been a reduction in carbon dioxide production of 53 per cent since 2000 by the Australian red meat industry. Again, there’s never been any evidence produced that carbon dioxide needs to be cut from human activity. This has been driven by measures that are now in place. How will you get the other 47 per cent, other than calling the permanent herd reduction numbers a net zero measure?

Mr Strong : There are a range of things already underway and a couple we can point to straightaway including feed supplements. There are two good examples of that.

Senator ROBERTS: Changing the nature of feed supplements?

Mr Strong : No, additional feed supplements that will go into a ration, for example. The red asparagopsis seaweed product has demonstrated to reduce the production of methane by more than 90 per cent. There’s also a synthetic version of the same type of component, which so far has demonstrated the same type of effect. So feed supplements are certainly a key opportunity in reducing the amount of methane being produced.

One of the other areas relates to things we’ve just been talking about, which is increasing productivity from the herd that we have through improved genetics, improved productivity through the things we were just talking about. So there are a number of areas in addition to a stable herd which are already largely proven and underway. We’re only a couple of years into the path to 2030.

Senator ROBERTS: WWF in America has been on a concerted campaign to kill the beef industry. The same organisation is doing the same here in this country, and cattle graziers have told me that. So there’s a lot of pressure on the beef industry, its very existence, for political reasons, not economic or scientific reasons. Do you, as the MLA, just accept the mantra that we need to cut the carbon dioxide produced by humans or human activity, or do you actually have scientific justification for accepting that?

Mr Strong : It’s not our position to enter into that discussion.

Senator ROBERTS: So you accept it.

Mr Strong : It’s not the environment to have a position either way. This is an industry goal, which is ambitious, but what’s really important is that we don’t think about CN30 in the absence of profitability, productivity and intergeneration sustainability. There’s nothing that we’re doing or investing in that doesn’t have a lens on profitability or productivity of the industry at the same time as thinking about its impact on the environment.

Senator ROBERTS: I would beg to differ. It seems to me that you need to have a sound rationale for why you’re doing these things and I have yet to see any proof of that. Feeding seaweed to cattle, feed supplements: surely there’s cost in there. You’re asking farmers to change their practices which could increase costs further. It seems like the doomsayers that have been hitting our electricity sector, our transport sector, our regulatory sector are now hitting our agriculture sector in many, many ways.

CHAIR: Is that a question, Senator Roberts?

Senator ROBERTS: No, that’s a statement.