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Federal Government silent on dodgy science for Queensland fish stock assessments

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Fisheries Queensland has been under immense pressure from fishers who have had their livelihoods destroyed. Despite declaring the stocks of Spanish Mackerel “sustainable” as recently as 2018, a change in assumptions and modelling hugely cut the quotas that fishers were allowed to take.

These changes to the model have been labelled unscientific by industry groups and scientific reviews. I thought the Australian Fisheries Management Authority had at least reviewed the changes to see if they were scientifically sound, but unfortunately this wasn’t the case.

One Nation will continue to fight for fishers to ensure that fair quotas are issued based on proper science.

Transcript

Senator Roberts: Thank you for being here today. Can you please discuss some of the background on the Spanish mackerel fisheries management, especially in Queensland? I understand that in recent times there have been significant changes in the management and the quotas are being reduced. Do you have more information on exactly what has happened?

Mr Norris: I’m afraid I don’t. The Queensland Spanish mackerel fishery is managed by the Queensland government. The only things I know about it are what I read in the media and from talking with colleagues. I don’t have a lot of insight to offer, I’m afraid.

Senator Roberts: Maybe I can share a couple of points and you can chime in. I understand that in 2018 the stocks of Spanish mackerel were considered sustainable, but a change in modelling has turned that on its head.  There is a lot of scientific disagreement about whether the new modelling is sound. Have you seen that?

Mr Norris: I have seen that play out in the media, yes.

Senator Roberts: On the new changes and a previous mackerel stock assessment, one reviewer named Klaer in 2021 said, and I quote: I am unable to support the conclusions regarding future harvest levels for the east coast Spanish mackerel stock until reservations regarding the most appropriate central value for steepness for the base-case are resolved.  Does AFMA have a view on whether robust science has been applied by Queensland fisheries setting the Spanish mackerel quotas?

Mr Norris: Perhaps I can make some very general comments. All fishery stock assessments are very sensitive to the assumptions built into the model. This concept of steepness is a particularly heavy driver. Certainly we have encountered disagreements about what steepness values should be in some of our assessments of Commonwealth fisheries. In terms of whether or not I am confident with the science done by Queensland, as I say, I haven’t reviewed the science because it is not a fishery we are involved in or manage. I would say as a general observation that I have a very high respect for the fishery scientists who work for the Department of Agriculture and Fisheries in Queensland. As I say, I haven’t been through the technicalities of this.

Senator Roberts: Could you tell us about steepness?

Mr Norris: Steepness is a value that comes from part of a stock assessment model called the stock recruitment relationship. What the stock recruitment relationship tries to explain is how many adults you need in the water to produce a certain number of babies for future cohorts. Traditionally, you might think it is probably linear; the more adults you have, the more babies you get. While that is true, it is very rarely a nice straight line. It’s a curve, and it is very difficult to estimate. Steepness is the gradient of that line.

Senator Roberts: I must say that you hit the nail on the head. A lot of people are disagreeing with the model used. The models have cut the quotas as a result of the modelling and the underlying assumptions; that is my understanding. We also had a really disastrous, I would say almost fraudulent, basis for the reef regulations that are decimating the east coast in Queensland. We questioned the scientists themselves at an inquiry that the Senate held in Brisbane. We showed just how false the science is; there is no basis for them. That is why a lot of fishermen are also now upset about the modelling and assumptions for their fishery quotas. So, what you are saying makes perfect sense. Thank you very much. Thank you for your clarity.

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QLD Government fishing ban based on dodgy science

The Queensland Government has announced a catastrophic 80% reduction in commercial Spanish Mackerel quotas in addition to six weeks of closed season.

This devastating blow to both recreational and commercial fishers is based on rubbish science that has been refuted by Industry and peer-review.

As Dr Peter Ridd outlines:

The Queensland government claims the number of mackerel is down to just 17% of what existed before European settlement. This is rubbish – and the scientist selected by the government to peer-review this conclusion strongly disagreed with the methodology to make this claim. The 17% number is based on a new computer model where they chose some unreasonable input parameters.

It is sometimes said of models: rubbish-in then rubbish-out. But in this case, it is carefully selected rubbish-in, the answer they want out. The model also used data on fish catch going back to 1912. But there is no decent data going back that far. They essentially made up the data for before the 1940s: the use of this bogus data is crucial to how the model calculated the 17% figure.

https://www.facebook.com/DrPeterRidd/posts/pfbid0L83VJ3TQJkHjuMPH5FFRN5BLQmii7FCipzZQki9grra1tZxWu94TdD6PUkRpBnwYl

This move from the Queensland Government will destroy livelihoods. To do so on such a flimsy and deceptive scientific basis borders on criminal.

The Queensland Government must cancel the proposed closed season and quota reduction. The junk science this decision is based on must be immediately withdrawn.

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Malcolm Roberts and Peter Gleeson 12 June

I joined Peter last night to discuss opening Queensland borders, #AllLivesMatter and troubles in the fishing industry.

Transcript

[Gleeson]

All right, there’s no doubt the Queensland government’s hard line stance on border closures has caused widespread backlash and anger among businesses in the tourism sector. Joining me now One Nation Senator, Malcolm Roberts, Malcolm, thanks for joining us. What is in the ground from your constituency, when it comes to these border closures?

[Roberts]

I’m hearing that they want the truth, Peter. That’s what they want. And they want to see a premier with a plan. And a premier that doesn’t roll back and just rely upon the Chief Medical Officer and leave her with all the heat.

They want a premier who can come out and tell the truth and I don’t think they’re ever gonna get that from this Queensland Labor Government. It just doesn’t trust people. That’s one of the issues here that we can explore later, if you like.

The lack of trust in the people because countries that have done really well on handling COVID much much better than Australia. Taiwan, for example, has kept its economy healthy, because it’s isolated the sick and it’s isolated the vulnerable and the rest continue to work and they’ve had a fraction of the deaths that we’ve had because they’ve isolated the sick and the vulnerable. Paluszczuk has done the reverse.

She’s isolated everyone, and that’s insane. And so people have had enough of this.

[Gleeson]

Malcolm, let’s talk about your leader Pauline Hanson’s motion earlier today. All lives matter is the motion. Now, it’s caused quite a fair bit of controversy in the Senate, but it’s also garnered a lot of support. What are you saying about that particular motion?

[Roberts]

I say exactly what she said. And that is that the other parties the other politicians in the senate are gutless. They have no regard for lives. Look I’ll tell you something, Peter. Yesterday we were here and we heard so many speeches, Pauline had a matter of public importance.

And it was about this topic and about law breakers who are violating the law by protesting, and many, many of the liberals came out and said “all lives matter.” But today, they were afraid to do that. And we think it’s because the Liberal Party is split some are woke and some are decent people.

Labor Party Senator Helen Polly from Tasmania tweeted “all lives matter,” just a few days ago. She got eaten alive in her party. And she withdrew it from Facebook. I mean, what is the matter with this country? What is the matter with the so called leaders of this country, Peter?

When we can’t even say all lives matter in one of the two main parties and half the other people in the other party are split It is just insane, all lives matter.

[Gleeson]

Malcolm, the Prime Minister has said that anyone who goes out and protests this weekend should be charged. Are you hopeful that police will actually act on what the Prime Minister is saying?

[Roberts]

Why even, Palaszczuk up in Queensland, she encouraged them, encouraged protesters last week, Peter I think she said something like, “You shouldn’t protest, but if you do, “then make sure you maintain social distancing.” I mean, how ridiculous is that?

That is encouraging people to social distance if the top of the state government, the Premier actually actively encourages protesting what hope have the police got of enforcing it? No they won’t, they’re gutless just like Andrews down in Victoria Berejiklian tried but the courts swept away from her.

So no I don’t have any faith in the government system backing the police and when the police won’t be backed, what can they do? The police in Queensland are fine generally speaking, they’re wonderful people, they do their job. They are loyal, and they’re efficient and effective.

But when the top of the tree gives up, then you’ve got anarchy on the march.

[Gleeson]

Just quickly Malcolm, what’s the latest on the fishing reforms that you guys are pushing?

[Roberts]

I don’t know where they’re actually at in the Queensland parliament, but we’re just trying to build up a head of steam by listening to a lot of fishermen. And so what we, for example, there’s a fisherman who has been fishing many many years in Rockhampton.

He’s had a 75% cut in his income before COVID and he’s now trying to survive on $10,000 a year. These people are working their guts out. They know fishing, they’re very practical people, but instead of them running their businesses and instead of them running their industry, bureaucrats in West End in Brisbane are running the industry.

They’ve got excessive no-go zones. They’ve got excessive limited zones. Do you know that in the Barrier Reef according to the World’s Institute for Reef, they say that the limit for a reef like the Great Barrier Reef is 15,000 kilograms per square kilometre catch per year, Queensland has nine kilograms that’s less than 0.06%.

[Gleeson]

Extraordinary

[Roberts]

It’s a fraction of 1%. This is an enormous resource. It’s a renewable resource. we’re importing 80% of the seafood we eat and exporting some of the food.

[Gleeson]

Senator Malcolm Roberts, great to see you tonight. Thank you for joining us, much appreciated.

[Roberts]

Thanks Peter.

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Increase Queensland’s fishing quotas for economic stimulus

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Senator Roberts calls on the government to lift the onerous restrictions on the fishing industry and increase fishing quotas within our waters as part of an economic stimulus package.

“Successive governments have destroyed our once profitable fishing industry with self-imposed fishing limits well below international sustainability levels and introduced vast net-free zones,” stated Senator Roberts.

The World Resource Institute’s research shows that a well-managed sustainable harvest from a coral reef is 15,000kg per square kilometre annually. The Great Barrier Reef harvest is set at an outrageously low 9kg per square kilometre, which is 0.06% of the recommended sustainable harvest.

Our fishing industry hamstrung with bureaucratic and unscientific green tape, means Australians have to import approximately 80% of our seafood.

“It is unbelievable that Australia, which has the world’s largest continental shelf fishing zone, imports so much of our seafood from Thailand and China.”
The COVID19 crisis highlighted the unnecessary green tape that hobbles so many Australian industries. Rebuilding our fishing industry requires scientific-based quotas, revisiting current and future restrictions and reducing the net-free zones.

“Australia should have one of the world’s most profitable fishing industries and supply Australians with the majority of their seafood. Instead they are drowning in green tape and the industry is facing ruin.”

He added, “The Lib-Lab duopoly through unfair trade agreements and needlessly signing United Nations’ agreements has decimated our fishing industry.”

“The COVID19 crisis has sent us a stark reminder that unfettered globalisation has left Australia vulnerable and our sovereignty diluted”.

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